Re:Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election
by btilly on Friday February 19, 2021 @03:09PM
(#26197462)
It is a winner take all market. All money placed in the market goes to the winner.
So if I want Donald Trump dead and am willing to pay a million dollars, I start the market and put a million dollars in for tomorrow. Eventually he dies and someone collects. Almost certainly not me, and not necessarily an assassin.
But any would-be assassin who wants can place a bet and now has a million dollars riding on whether they succeed.
So if I want Donald Trump dead and am willing to pay a million dollars, I start the market and put a million dollars in for tomorrow. Eventually he dies and someone collects. Almost certainly not me, and not necessarily an assassin.
But any would-be assassin who wants can place a bet and now has a million dollars riding on whether they succeed.
This is not novel, the idea has been around for a quarter century. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market for more.