Re:MasterCard to open up network to cryptocurrencies
by lazide on Friday February 12, 2021 @01:39PM
(#26116912)
I think you're fundamentally misunderstanding my comment, and we're mostly agreeing with each other - apologies if I wasn't clear!
I was quite explicitly referring to speculative future events, and how their odds of happening directly impact current pricing of bitcoin.
USD is reasonably well regulated now and has been historically - by some definition - at least as well as any of its competitor currencies, though none of them are looking particularly great right now by traditional measures.
What are the odds it will remain so for 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Less than 100%, better than 0%.
As BTC addresses issues over the next 10, 20, 50 years - could it be a viable option for central bank clearing in the way JPY, USD, or gold is now? What are the odds? 100%? 0%?
With the work, attention, and considering the existing progress it's made, will it be a viable option for a trans-national or even national currency over the same time frames? What are the odds? 0%? 100%?
I'm pointing out that 1) none of those options is clearly a 0% or 100% outcome over the time frames we're talking about 2) depending on your individual judgement and how optimistic or pessimistic you are about various parts of these equations, depends on what you think BTC's value currently is.
Even people just hedging their bets against a not impossible outcome can lead to a deflationary spiral, leading to high prices until there is clear data one way or another where things will end up.
I was quite explicitly referring to speculative future events, and how their odds of happening directly impact current pricing of bitcoin.
USD is reasonably well regulated now and has been historically - by some definition - at least as well as any of its competitor currencies, though none of them are looking particularly great right now by traditional measures.
What are the odds it will remain so for 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? Less than 100%, better than 0%.
As BTC addresses issues over the next 10, 20, 50 years - could it be a viable option for central bank clearing in the way JPY, USD, or gold is now? What are the odds? 100%? 0%?
With the work, attention, and considering the existing progress it's made, will it be a viable option for a trans-national or even national currency over the same time frames? What are the odds? 0%? 100%?
I'm pointing out that 1) none of those options is clearly a 0% or 100% outcome over the time frames we're talking about 2) depending on your individual judgement and how optimistic or pessimistic you are about various parts of these equations, depends on what you think BTC's value currently is.
Even people just hedging their bets against a not impossible outcome can lead to a deflationary spiral, leading to high prices until there is clear data one way or another where things will end up.