What is the threat model here, and in particular what is the outcome of a successful attack?

For example, if the only "power in the system" the attacker has is the ability to prevent transactions from occurring, then the attacker is damaging the value of their own coins. The honest majority could, as a last resort, also decide to manually fork the currency to invalidate the attacker's coins.

Assuming the ⅓ number is weighted by stake, the attacker is potentially risking billions of dollars in order to carry out this short-term attack. With that amount of money it would be cheaper to locate and destroy the major bitcoin mining farms.