If you were to reach 2030 and things are alright climate wise, would you decide you are wrong, or pick another deadline? What is your criteria for deciding whether or not you should change your mind?
Tell me then. Tell me, what should I be concerned about. What sort of discussion should I he engaged in? What should my opinions be? How can I be as right as you?
You can sell me doom by showing me. Again I ask, risking asking the wrong question, where's your support for your "estimate" that society will collapse globally by 2030 due to climate change?
What facts are you in doubt about? Do you have doubts that, as already-hot places become uninhabitable, people will flee toward places that are not, instead of staying put and, you know, dying? Europe is failing to absorb the refugee influx it already sees. In the US, 70M+ people voted for fascism in 2016 and in 2020, and a BorderWall™.
Do you doubt that as coral reefs bleach and oceans acidify, fisheries will collapse? They are already collapsing. Do you believe that as people fail to get enough protein, they will not respond with desperation?
Or are you one who insists that we don't have proof sufficiently iron-clad that record-high temperatures and record-low ocean pH will continue responding, as predicted and as observed for decades, to rising CO2 levels, and that we must act as if nothing is happening?
Your car speeding towards a cliff analogy presupposes your argument. I'd argue that a bumpy road is coming, not a cliff. I'd like you to show me why you believe it is a cliff, and that it is coming within 9 years.
Facts I'm in doubt about: that global societal collapse is coming by 2030. You could change my mind here, I'm practically begging you to do it, all you have to do is show me.
I don't doubt that coral reefs bleach, but I do doubt that it is really that big a deal, and I have reasons why. Here is one: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2982020/ they are not collapsing. See what I did there? If you could do that, just once, that would be great. You might even convince me that total societal collapse will occur by 2030.
I'm in doubt that climate change will cause famines that create a 200M migration problem worldwide. If you could give me a reason to believe that, and that it will happen by the year 2030, I'd really appreciate that very much.
2. What are the right questions?
Anyone can be a doomsayer.
You are saying that the human population will be ~3,500,000,000 less in the next ten years? That's...an extraordinary claim to make.
Al Gore... is that you? https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-poca...
We should only ever be saying "Global Climate Disruption".
I am estimating a 50% chance of global civilization collapse by 2030.
It starts with crop failure in tropical and subtropical countries. Fishery collapse, as coral reefs are wiped out by bleaching and acidification, slashes access to protein. Famine drives mass refugee migration across borders.
Rich, temperate countries panic at the influx and allow fascists into power (as has already happened in Brazil, Hungary, the Philippines, Turkey, India and Russia, and is only forestalled in the US, Italy, France, and Germany; pace China and the former SSRs).
Fascists in power will (as they do) start wars, disrupting trade, generating economic crises, and more wars spiraling out of control, and ultimately nuclear exchange.
A big part of the problem is actually refrigerants; HFCs currently in use, if vented, force as much heating as all the CO2 already in the atmosphere. We could remove CO2, in principle, but not the HFCs.
You might suggest 2030 is too soon, and 2040 more likely. I hope so, but it doesn't make that much difference, really. If we don't act like 2030 is the deadline, we will hit one soon enough.