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Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by kccqzy on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @03:23AM (#25743859)
When the government calculates inflation, they look at prices of common goods, but not housing. That's why inflation is artificially low, and even CPI-adjusted "real" monetary values don't really make sense.
Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by em500 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @04:32AM (#25744382)
This is incorrect. Cost of housing comprises more than 40% of the CPI basket[1], mainly through direct or owner-equivalent rent[2]. There are good practical and technical reasons why home prices are not included directly, but the costs of the main utility of a home (shelter) is one of the largest parts of the CPI calculation.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2019.txt

[2] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-an...

Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by ItsMonkk on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @11:14AM (#25748817)
And notably the 40% number has not changed since 1990, as [0] shows.

But it's misleading. As the OP showed, median housing prices is determined by the amount the median income can afford a house based on the interest rates. This means that to the CPI, a $500k house is equivalent to a $210k house was in 1990 as they both have the same payment. They will therefore have the same owner equivalent rents. And therefore even if prices have more than doubled in 30 years, the CPI will not show it.

And so we can reframe the argument from above as:

When the government calculates inflation, they look at prices of common goods, but not housing. Housing is based on monthly payment. That's why inflation is artificially low.

[0] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/1990.txt

Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by em500 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @01:35PM (#25751314)
> When the government calculates inflation, they look at prices of common goods, but not housing. Housing is based on monthly payment. That's why inflation is artificially low.

Please read how the shelter part of CPI is actually calculated, rather than using your imagination. The rental component of shelter is based on surveying renters how much rent they actually pay. Owner equivalent rents (OER) components is based on surveying owners how much rent they think their house would rent for. It's simply answering the question "If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly?". There are no house prices, no interests rates, no house payments in there at all; they only affect CPI as far as it unfluences house owner estimates of rents.

The OER component of CPI would be "artificially low" if you believe owners systematically understate how much their own house would rent for (or if you believe the BLS folks are lying). Your $500k house would be equivalent to the $210k 1990 house in the CPI calculation if its owner believes it would rent for the same amount today as in 1990.

Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by skzv on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @03:29AM (#25743890)
To be slightly more correct, they only consider interest payments in calculations of inflation, since they consider the principle a recoverable investment.
Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by em500 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @04:49AM (#25744516)
Incorrect, see my sibling comment. It's strange that there are so many misconceptions around CPI, while the BLS has extensive layman-language docs about most their procedures https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi
Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by skzv on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @01:33PM (#25751288)
Thanks for the links.

Looks like you're right, interest is not considered consumption.

What is included is rent, or for owner-occupied residences, the "owners’ equivalent rent" - the figure which would be charged if the owner rented it out?

Re:Two Worlds: So Much Prosperity, So Much Skepticism by em500 on Tuesday January 12, 2021 @01:40PM (#25751382)
Yes, OER is just asking owners "If someone were to rent your home today, how much do you think it would rent for monthly, unfurnished and without utilities?"