> The RSI is trading above 70. This could mean that either the stock is in a lasting uptrend or just overbought and that therefore a correction could shape (look for bearish divergence in this case).
The price might go up if it doesn’t go down? Thanks, very helpful.
So, they're predicting both sides of movement because they're interested in the slope of the trendline dividing those sides and the time-frames they're analyzing, not the sides themselves.
One example that clarified it for me is a purely degenerate case, the stock went from 1 to 0 over all possible timeframes. In that case, all trendlines are purely vertical, all trendlines are the same for all timeframes, so the fact it can only move up is obvious, and contrasting trendliness is uninteresting.
However, in other cases, (say, a small medical research company that has been on the market for a decade but recently produced the singular vaccine for a massive pandemic, but has an expensive and novel manufacturing process that makes it 5x the cost of competitors possible solutions), contrasting trendlines for the last two months versus last decade is very informative for comparing the case in which the vaccine market becomes competitive, versus the monopoly it "is" today.
Noting the signal we'll receive about the 'class' of price movement, based on both directions the price could move, is very helpful and necessary for judging the TA after the time period plays out.
I think it's right to point out "on any given day". On broader time horizons you can easily figure out why prices move and you can bet on it much easier.
Unless there's some significant news or M&A deal that you can tie to price action (and even then, you're most likely explaining only part of the price movement), you won't know why a price is moving.
There is a whole industry of people adding post-hoc rationalizations to price movements (e.g. CNBC, stock gurus and others). They do it because 1. what they say is not falsifiable in any way and 2. people find idle speculation about money to be exciting.