This is similar to the common argument about voter fraud. Of course there was almost certainly basically no fraud to speak of in this election, like usual. (And that's important to emphasize, especially right now.) But the way this overall topic tends to be approached in general is very odd, to me:
There's a routinely used argument that concern about voter fraud is ridiculous because there's essentially been no significant incidence of it in modern history. This isn't unreasonable to bring up, but I think by itself is a very poor approach to risk assessment that's reminiscent of early COVID predictions/warnings/guidance and 2016 election odds from many of the same people. Especially when some foreign intelligence agencies appear to be getting increasingly brazen, and when considering that for most of the recorded history, voting was a lot less digitized.
There was almost no incidence of jets being deliberately flown into buildings as a form of WMD, until some people pulled out all their cards and exploited a "0-day", doing as much damage as they could in a single effort before a "patch" could be deployed. And sometimes it's simply a matter of no one making a serious, motivated attempt to do something until one day someone finally does.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-we-know-about-vote...
I was just trying to talk about this specific argument and how it's often used in isolation to create a certain way of seeing things that I think is based on shaky grounds.
I'm not trying to take any ideological stance, but just discuss epistemology in general. (Though for the record, I've only ever voted and will very likely only ever vote Democrat. I promise I don't have any ulterior motives regarding this topic and am a strong supporter of voter enfranchisement. Risk assessment in general just is a component of my job and hobbies.)
Epistemologically, that's why I believe these discussions should be evidence based instead of theoretical or ideological. We don't do a good job of figuring out what is going to work and what is not going to work until we've tried some stuff out. And it needs to balanced. There will be a few people who will try to cheat the system. As long as they get caught and it doesn't affect the election, that's ok. There will be a price to pay in legitimate votes who are unable to cast a ballot because of whatever countermeasures we put in place. The question is, did we strike the right balance?
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign...
Whether or not something happened in Georgia this election -- and I don't particularly care whether something did -- the perfectly valid point is we have an insecure election system, and we should fix it.
In this context, though, security is NOT hard. We've just made the decision not to do it. I see no excuse for why I shouldn't be able to see the source code and design of the voting machines in my state, or audit any part of the manufacturing or voting process. This should all be open and transparent. A not-for-profit should be able to spot audit a hundred random machines around the US:
- Swipe a credit card to cover supervisor time
- In a secure facility, confirm the source code and hardware are as advertised on local voting machines
This just isn't rocket science.
Judging from downvotes and comments on HN, building political consensus around that will be neigh-impossible post-Trump. Click on my post history. Most of my comments are in the +3 to +15 range. Virtually all my comments in this thread are either 1 (not voted on) or between 0 and -4 (having gone to -6). None are swinging Trump conspiracy theories; merely pointing out the obvious: we need robust, auditable, secure voting.
And in this context, you are choosing to jump into those conversations to express vague generalities and open ended speculation that can't be pinned down to any specific claims about anything in a context where a mob is looking to those exact themes to motivate their violence.
There's a form of dishonesty that comes from making untrue claims about voter fraud, and there's another kind that comes from the themes you choose to emphasize to fan on the flames of false arguments while being coy about whether you personally believe them. This falls in the latter category, and this is the problem people have with your comments.
1) Lying to them that elections are secure, and telling them to sit down and shut up
2) Taking concerns seriously and addressing them
Your premise is that #1 will prevent a violence. My claim is that #2 will.
You can flipped this around. We had a lot of violence and lawless behavior around BLM protests. What would have calmed people down? Telling them we didn't have racism, to go home, and shut up? Or providing a clear process to address their concerns peacefully?
I think most folks on the right will move on from the Trump election if the left knocks it off with "sit down and shut up," which is coincidentally the exact language right wing commentators use.
As a footnote, which concerns are valid is almost irrelevant. For this, what matters is which concerns people believe.
You are trying to equivocate between those specifically and indisputably false allegations and something completely different: a much more generalized and vaguely expressed set of concerns with election security writ large.
These have nothing to do with each other and yet you are equivocating between them.
Especially not 10 days of "investigation" by congress who they already do not trust.
With that attitude -- that there are tens of millions of people who can't be trusted or reasoned with and need to be locked up and silenced -- civil war is inevitable.
"Those people" are human beings too. You might not agree with them and they might be wrong, but they're not very different from you. They're just exposed to different culture and information.
It is. How many papers were been published in Oakland between 2000 and 2010 on election security? Lots. Clearly this is a problem interesting enough to capture the interest of computer security faculty. It isn't a toy problem.
In addition to technical challenges (open sourcing isn't magic), there is a very complex organizational challenge due to the decentralized structure of elections in the US.
But more importantly, making vague claims about hypothetical limitations of the existing systems while tens of millions of americans believe that actual literal fraud stole the election from Trump and are using that as motivation to invade the capitol building and disrupt the process of transitioning power between parties is tone-deaf to say the least.
Seriously.
It's tone deaf to one side, but I'm pretty scared since the other side has, just as wrongheadedly, convinced itself these systems work. I'm not worried about 50,000 votes stolen due to doublevoting somewhere or a mailtruck of votes getting lost. If victory falls on the 50.1% mark versus the 49.9% mark, that's okay. I'm worried because we have a system which IS exploitable and which WILL be exploited, if it hasn't already been.
Rigging US elections has incredible ROI for any foreign state actor, and simply isn't hard.
For the record, I made equally tone deaf comments when 9/11 happened and when COVID19 was in its early days. Now, they're common sense to most people. I don't want to wait for Russia, China, or North Korea to pick our next president before we do something.
Open source, transparency, and auditability won't solve the problem 100%, but they'll prevent most types of gross, blatant rigging. Cryptographic voting algorithms or paper trails will get us much of the rest of the way there. We don't need perfect security, but we need to be in a place where a single point of compromise can't break our democracy.
I'm serious. Go read the papers. You very obviously don't have a background in academic security. Because Oakland doesn't tend to accept stuff on trivial matters.
We have reached an era of wrongthink- where even if you align slightly with the wrong side in your thinking, you are silenced. You are no longer allowed to agree with any portion of the wrong side, it must wholly be rejected.
We can loop back to election security when POTUS isn't trying to use it as an excuse for a coup.