Where do you get these numbers from? California has about 50k new cases per day, with probably another 50k cases that were not tested. According to your stats 20k people will require hospitalization and 5k will require an ICU bed per day.
Where do you get this from? I do think, of those requiring hospitalization, there is somewhere around a <20% mortality rate (it seems to vary by region).
This statement is false.
(With regard to any reasonable definition of exposure to the current virulent strains and assuming the vaccines do their job.)
One major purpose of the vaccines is to cause R < 1 and the virus to fade out, so that most humans will not be exposed to the virus ever in their lives. The other major purpose is for those humans who are exposed to it, to significantly reduce the chance of the virus causing harm.
Like putting out a fire before it spreads everywhere. Some things are burned but not everything is even touched by the flame, if it's put out.
Sure, it's certainly up for debate (and the future) whether or not the rate will drop low enough that most humans escape exposure. That will depend on more than just R0 - we still don't know if the vaccines (any of them) prevent transference, and the emergence of new variants with higher R0 values but identical infection mechanisms (which most people would agree is the same virus) may also complicate this quite a bit.
So sure, maybe I should have dialed it back to "it's entirely possible that the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2, though if we are lucky that probably won't happen".
I don't think that changes my fundamental point that the crisis for a pandemic like this is not in personal health - "Am I going to die?" - but in the public health - "can my society's health care systems still function?"
The evolution of viruses like this is they tend to mutate into milder strains as they become endemic. At that point the milder version may still cause excess deaths (like flu does, and unfortunately it would be in addition to flu deaths), but not at the same virulence.
But an endemic virus does not necessarily mean every human will be exposed to it. There are diseases which are almost but not quite eradicated by widespread vaccination, and keep going in clusters, surviving in pockets here and there.
[ EDIT: the number I originally used for "requiring hospitalization" were way off. I've edited to reflect data from September provided by the CDC. The 20% -> ICU figure comes from the NYC experience in May, but seems roughly correct from other global hotspots ]
Roughly 0.4% of those who catch COVID19 will require hospitalization. Of those, 20% will require ICU treatment.
In the end, the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2. If that happens all on the same day, or week, or month or probably even year, no health care system in the world can possibly deal with the case load.
Some of those who might have survived COVID19 with hospital care will die.
But (and this is the important part) those with other medical conditions that timely and effective health care could have treated will also die. Trauma (e.g. car or tool accidents). Infectious disease. Cancer. Chronic health conditions.
And in killing all these people, you've made nothing better for those who survive, because if you think the economy has gone to hell under current attempts to deal with it, you clearly cannot imagine it as the entire health care system melts down.
COVID19 is not a personal health crisis. Most people will not die of it (even though hundreds of thousands will, which is not going to be much comfort to their families, friends, colleagues and neighbors. It is a public health crisis that threatens to overwhelm our health care systems and thus have far worse effects than just the disease itself.