Re:London will be overwhelmed by Covid in a fortnight says l...
by jlokier on Wednesday January 06, 2021 @09:32PM
(#25666575)
I read that too, when the epidemiologists were saying it could become endemic, but if it does, it's unlikely to be the current virulence, which is what counts when discussing deaths etc.
The evolution of viruses like this is they tend to mutate into milder strains as they become endemic. At that point the milder version may still cause excess deaths (like flu does, and unfortunately it would be in addition to flu deaths), but not at the same virulence.
But an endemic virus does not necessarily mean every human will be exposed to it. There are diseases which are almost but not quite eradicated by widespread vaccination, and keep going in clusters, surviving in pockets here and there.
Sure, it's certainly up for debate (and the future) whether or not the rate will drop low enough that most humans escape exposure. That will depend on more than just R0 - we still don't know if the vaccines (any of them) prevent transference, and the emergence of new variants with higher R0 values but identical infection mechanisms (which most people would agree is the same virus) may also complicate this quite a bit.
So sure, maybe I should have dialed it back to "it's entirely possible that the entire human race will be exposed to SARS-COV-2, though if we are lucky that probably won't happen".
I don't think that changes my fundamental point that the crisis for a pandemic like this is not in personal health - "Am I going to die?" - but in the public health - "can my society's health care systems still function?"