The last U.S. civil war had the politicians from the southern states seceding.

Is that what you were predicting 3 years ago, still predicting?

Because all I see are rioting by people who have lost any upward mobility they might have once had.

They'll be burning Teslas next but that doesn't make it a civil war.

You had rioting people who lost any upward mobility at exactly the same time the sitting Vice President and Congress were explicitly voting on the certification of the result of the election. They were backed by 150+ Politicians who were going to refuse to certify their results. These rioting people then committed several felonies of much greater legal concern than anything in the BLM protests and subsequent rioting.

> These rioting people then committed several felonies of much greater legal concern than anything in the BLM protests and subsequent rioting.

Come again? The BLM riots went on for months, multiple people died, a section of a major city was occupied for weeks (two people murdered by the self appointed security force), a police precinct was burned down (as well as many building in several cities), etc. And you’re talking about the the grave felonies involved in a single day of occupying a public building...

You are downplaying this event which is natural considering it's literally the worst look possible but the reality of the BLM protests in DC which turned violent is in no way comparable to what we've seen today in broad daylight. You want to rush the capitol building with a mob during the certification of our next sitting President? This isn't a gas station in Wisconsin. It isn't a sound idea regardless of your politics. I'm honestly surprised they weren't squashed by police sooner.

To the downvoters... tell me where I’m wrong. The reaction to what I’ve said kind of highlights the “two groups living in separate realities” discussion here. There is much pearl clutching today about occupation of a public building, somehow placing the mayhem caused on a level far above months of rioting, looting, and dead bodies.

> Because all I see are rioting by people who have lost any upward mobility they might have once had.

Isn't this what ultimately fuels all civil wars?

> Is that what you were predicting 3 years ago, still predicting?

What is the biggest social crisis there now, for every opportunistic force to take advantage off?

One need to be very, very blind not to see it coming, especially living in a major US city.

I still don't see how you are connecting the dots. A lot more needs to be in place for civil war.

Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.

> A lot more needs to be in place for civil war.

True, really a lot. In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself. And a nation on the edge it is.

> Pretty sure the monied interests have no desire for civil war — the opposite was the case in the mid 19th Century.

And so thought monied interests of the Old World when a wave of civil wars sped through the continent, and the Spring of Nations happened after few decades of turmoil.

And historians err here, taking desirable, for believable. "The Two Terrible Decades," aren't called that for nothing. They were devastating for both of Europe's Old, and New Money. It were the same upper classes socialites who wrote the term in the history books after all.

> In needs a nation on the edge for it to decide to turn on itself

It would help if there were some geographical lines, as well. Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US?

Are you envisioning the next civil war will be simultaneous sieges of all the major cities in the US?

No, most likely the same North-South split, with a bit of interior, vs exterior element to it.

That seems implausible. Slavery is no longer the overt separation between the areas. Democrats in Atlanta agree with Democrats in Portland far more than they agree with Republicans in rural Georgia. There's no basis for a civil war. Revolution is the closest we'd get, but neither side has anywhere near enough power to suppress the entirety of the other.

Plus, when the shit hits the fan, the reasonable among us seem to suddenly conclude maybe we don't really care to fight about this. Yesterday is a classic example. These folks at the capitol like to think they were going to start the war and everyone else would join in. What really happens, of course, is that they find out how limited their numbers are, and that regular people will simply direct the police to squash the insurrection.

American socio-economic divide is very much geographical, unless the only poor people you know are urban homeless.

And this divide lines uncannily along the lines from centuries ago.

Gun control or land use causing inequality and social calcification?

I think s/he might be referring to COVID but it is pretty unclear.

COVID epidemic is not a social crisis, but you certainly can spin it as one.

They're gonna have to link up with the left to go burning teslas, but instead they'll fight the other people without upward mobility.

But you can’t listen to them now. Any underlying reasonable argument, policy or beliefs are now turned into monsters after they’ve turned all their opposition into monsters. They’ve become everything they claim to be protecting against. They must be fought before they can be heard.