Vast majority of human generated content is not very novel or creative. I'm guessing less than 1% of professional human writers or composers create something original. Those people are not in any danger to be replaced by AI, and will probably be earning more money as a result of more value being placed on originality of content. Humans will strive (or be forced) to be more creative, because all non-original content creation will be automated. It's a win-win situation.
Most arbitrageurs cannot stay in the business, it's the law of diminishing returns. Economies of scale eventually prevent small individual players to profit from the market, only a few big-ass hedge funds can stay, because due to their investments they can get preference from exchanges (significantly lower / zero / negative fees, co-located hardware, etc.) which makes the operation reasonable to them. With enough money you can even build your own physical cables between exchanges to outperform the competitors in latency games. I'm a former arbitrageur, by the way :)
Same with AI-generated content. You would have to be absolutely brilliant to compete with AI. Only a few select individuals would be "allowed" to enter the market. Not even sure that it has something to do with the quality of the content, maybe it's more about prestige.
You see, there already are gazillions of decent human artists, but only a few of them are really popular. So the top-tier artists would probably remain human, because we need someone real to worship to. Their producers would surely use AI as a production tool, depicting it as a human work. But all the low-tier artists would be totally pushed out of the market. There will be simply no job for a session musician or a freelance designer.
I think AlphaGo was a great in-domain example of this. I definitely see things I'd refer to colloquially as 'creativity' in this DALL-E post, but you can decide for yourself, but that still isn't claiming it matches what some humans can do.
If I train an AI on classical paintings, can it ever invent Impressionism, Cubism, Surrealism? Can it do irony? Can it come up with something altogether new? Can it do meta? “AlphaPaint, a recursive self-portrait”?
Maybe. I’m just not sure we have seen anything in this dimension yet.
I see your point, but it's an unfair comparison: if you put a human in a room and never showed them anything except classical paintings, it's unlikely they would quickly invent cubism either. The humans that invented new art styles had seen so many things throughout their life that they had a lot of data to go off of. Regardless, I think we can do enough neural style transfer already to invent new styles of art though.
It’s like efficient market hypothesis: markets are efficient because arbitrage, which is highly profitable, makes them so. But if they are efficient, how can arbitrageurs afford to stay in business? In practice, we are stuck in a half-way house, where markets are very, but not perfectly, efficient.
I guess in practice, the pie for humans will keep on shrinking, but won’t disappear too soon. Same as horse maintenance industry, farming and manufacturing, domestic work etc. Humans are still needed there, just a lot less of them.