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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by TheOtherHobbes on Friday December 25, 2020 @09:31AM (#25536669)
You don't need a massive amount of energy. We could be launching interstellar probes now with current technology. They'll just take 10s/100s of thousands of years to get anywhere.

The real problems are political, technological and ecological stability.

No one has ever built electronics capable of lasting hundreds of thousands of years. It's not obvious if it's possible because on those timescales everything crumbles to dust, especially if it's constantly being abraded by dust and radiation.

And if you don't put your travellers into long-term suspension, political and cultural stability are even more fragile.

And small eco-systems are far less resilient than planet-sized systems - which, it turns out, may not be resilient at all on longer timescales.

So the gap between launching Voyager I/II and launching a self-replicating probe which can reproduce itself physically and culturally is beyond huge.

If you happen to have massive amounts of energy some of these problems get easier, because you can get where you're going more quickly. But some remain immensely difficult.

Which is why percolation is a much better model. There will inevitably be some attrition in any colonisation program, and there may well be a hard limit on the amount of entropy any colonisation program can survive.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by generalizations on Friday December 25, 2020 @10:22AM (#25536933)
I think that just as cost is based on physics, time is best measured in terms of lifespan. Probes with travel times measured in the thousands of lifespans take too long.

Might as well ask Archimedes to send a probe.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by tsimionescu on Friday December 25, 2020 @11:20AM (#25537269)
Even beyond lifespans, there are problems with materials and resilience. While a conductor wire seems solid enough for us, that's only true for some hundreds of years. Even if we lived 1000 years each, that doesn't guarantee we can make mechanisms of any kind to last 1000 years, nevermind 10000.

Hell, I'm not even sure we can make a computer that actually lasts 100 years.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by lisper on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:05PM (#25537576)
> I'm not even sure we can make a computer that actually lasts 100 years.

I'm pretty sure we can. I have a 40-year-old calculator that is still working just fine.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by tsimionescu on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:16PM (#25537639)
Well, it still has 60 years to go before you can contest my hypothesis.

Still, I was probably too ambitious when I said "computer". I was thinking more that we can't make a PC or server-style computer that would actually last 100 years, while in regular operation.

Also, 1980s calculators have much, much fewer moving parts than today's computers. They don't have any kind of active cooling, they don't go through rapid heating and cooling cycles, they probably have three orders of magnitude less electrical components than a modern PC.

For me at least, all of the PCs I have had so far have had a few electrical components giving out after at most 10 years (usually some condensers leaked).

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by lisper on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:30PM (#25537738)
But all that is just because computers are not designed for longevity, they are designed for capability. We could easily design them for longevity if we wanted to: lower the clock speed so that passive cooling is all that's needed. Make all the PC traces five times fatter than they need to be. Use non-electrolytic capacitors. The resulting computer would be big and slow but it would last forever.

In fact, it would not surprise me a bit if you could run a Raspberry Pi Zero for 100 years.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by adrianN on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:11PM (#25537608)
Given an energy source that lasts the duration of the trip, I'm sure we could figure out how to build a ship that we can keep repairing quicker than it falls apart.
Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by tsimionescu on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:17PM (#25537653)
Then we're back to the energy requirement, yes.

I wouldn't even be convinced then that we have the technology today. Any repair system would necessarily suffer from the same kinds of failures.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by adrianN on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:22PM (#25537682)
I think the amount of mass lost is small enough that extra provisions can be carried around. For anything else you just have to fight entropy. Given enough energy you can probably do that.