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Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by imtringued on Friday December 25, 2020 @07:56AM (#25536190)
It's pretty obvious. Space is harsh. Even just doing colonization within the solar system is hard to swallow. It's not possible to live on most planets even if we assume that everyone stays in what amounts to a grounded space station. Since we have not yet unlocked fusion we will always have to stay close to the sun. Mars is already too far away. Venus has an extreme atmosphere that causes it to be extremely hot. If a crackpot said we have to build a 100000 person colony in space this century we would have to start on the moon even though there is no water there. The primary reason would be that we are still close enough to the sun that we can use solar panels to generate energy. Space colonization without fusion is simply put: a joke.

If space was easy then our galaxy would have been devoured by some grey goo AI (not life) a long time ago. Life has to build artificial habitats and live in them. AIs can just stay in space forever as long as they can gather enough resources.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by ben_w on Friday December 25, 2020 @09:54AM (#25536791)
I’m more concerned with the politics than the technology of space colonisation.

Space colonisation with current tech isn’t a joke, but it is a folly in the sense of British Victorian-era aristocrats — extremely rich people doing fancy but not very cost-effective things.

Fusion isn’t necessary for this, however, as PV scales well enough for a Mars colony (don’t get me wrong, still extremal, but it could be made to work up to about Jupiter if cost of local manufacturing was not a limiting factor).

But: politics. Let’s assume every settlement on Earth has a corresponding space habitat (O’Neill cylinder or whatever) of the same population in Earth orbit. With this situation, rapid transport between any two locations is trivial enough that high school students could accidentally blow everything up up — I made an ion drive while at school (simple ones are easy) but orbital dynamics are counter-intuitive and not something a high schooler is likely to know, so a kid running one in space with that many large stations around has a high risk of causing a Kessler cascade.

Scale the hypothetical scenario up to a K2 swarm around the sun, same applies only with the risk of mass extinction on the home planet.

In either case it can be weaponised, and about 19 years ago a bunch of theocratic fundamentalists demonstrated that a small group of humans can be smart enough to cause enormous harm while also being dumb enough to not predict the consequences.

Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by GoblinSlayer on Friday December 25, 2020 @11:43AM (#25537429)
We already have an idea that stupidity is global liability. As technology becomes more advanced, this liability will grow, and one day we won't be able to ignore it.
Re:Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox”: The Percolation Theory Hypothesis by adrianN on Friday December 25, 2020 @12:20PM (#25537668)
The upper layers of Venus' atmosphere are actually reasonably well suited for a floating colony. And as an energy source, fission is almost as good as fusion and we can do that very well.