Re:London put in emergency lockdown as U.K. fights new strain
by Retric on Saturday December 19, 2020 @10:55PM
(#25483741)
It’s not about an abstract model, there are feedback loops involved. Shutdowns and people’s behavior responds to the number of new infections. Globally across the last 6 months, new infections are close to 1:1 because you don’t exponential growth. Just look at the three waves in the US.
In effect masks buy you a more open environment where people can leave their homes and do more stuff. Further, when locations decide to shutdown that shutdown is more effective.
Treating R, the number of infections from each case, as though it was the same everywhere is just a way of simplifying the model, but the map is not the territory and we need to be a lot more careful about whether our simplifying assumptions change the overall behaviour of the system being modelled than we have been.