https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/13/texas-redistricting-...
The chart shows the House popular vote compared to the number of House seats. When Biden entered Congress, Democrats were winning 10 percentage points more of House seats than their share of the popular vote. But those districts were extremely sensitive to fluctuations and after redistricting based on the 1990 census many flipped rapidly.
The strength of each faction waxes and wanes depending on what’s dividing the electorate. During the mid-20th century, both parties embraced “Christian values” (https://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Pro...) so economic issues dominated. Since Clinton, the parties are generally both on board with neo-liberalism, so religious and social issues dominate.
Maybe I just miss this, but that doesn't seem to match up with current evangelical support of the Republican party.
Of course that would require the Republicans to get out of their own way and stop playing into the Democrats' hand at every turn regarding Identity Politics. So who knows.
This was the RNC's prediction and former goal for future growth. It was correct until Trump disrupted it. The only place where this is still true is in FL.
Until Trump loses his grip on the Republican party, Hispanics by and large will be flocking to the Democrats.
Personally I don't see what's wrong with liberalism. What is wrong in the US is that the left prefer narratives over facts and data, and think that censorship would never one day hurt themselves.
Shouldn't the democrats in california worry also? If so many democrats are moving to texas?
Oddly enough, just a few decades ago, texas used to be a democrat state and california was a republican state.
Lyndon B Johnson was a democrat from Texas and Richard Nixon was a republican from california.
I wonder if texas and california might flip in my lifetime. That would be so strange to see.
Trump was a huge driver of turnout. I don't think the republican party is quite as strong without him on the ticket.
One thing I'm not holding my breath for in 2022 is seeing the Democrats in the House leverage their decreased majority into a larger majority, or even retaining the House considering mid-terms are always a bad time to be a member of the President's party. That, and after this past election there is a net increase in the number Republican trifecta States, an increase in the number of States under Republican Governors, and redistricting season will soon begin.
Who set a record for votes. He wasn't unpopular, he was the 2nd most popular candidate ever.
People like to undersell how well the democrats did in 2018 and in 2020. Georgia going blue, Arizona going blue, and the blue wall getting rebuilt...it's pretty impressive. They kept the house, and may yet still win the senate.
The districts are already stacked against democrats as is. Republicans won't gain much from redistricting.
You have a point, but let me ask you: if a bag of rice had been the Republican Presidential incumbent in place of Donald J. Trump, do you think Biden would have received a record-setting number of votes?
Maybe I'm wrong about this, but it seems to me Trump's unpopularity was as much a factor in Biden winning as anything else that, and maybe that's because I live in a blue bubble, but even conservative outlets I followed were expecting the Republicans to be absolutely crushed this election and to go down in flames with the President, and they weren't. Not even close. Republicans didn't regain the House, but they saw net gains, and they retained a full 50% of the Senate. Harris's vote is only relevant if the Democrats can win in the Georgia runoff on January 6th, not just one, but both seats, otherwise she's just another President of the Senate without a vote. Considering that election is still an open question, it is a bit early to be calling Georgia a blue state. Elections are more than just the President after all, and Red and Blue States are only really Red and Blue after they've demonstrated a continuous unbroken Red or Blue streak for a few cycles.
So again, if the Republican Presidential incumbent was a bag of rice, would we have 1. seen record-breaking turnout in favor of both candidates and 2. a loss by the incumbent? I ask, and maybe this is just because I live in a blue bubble inside a blue bubble, because it seems to me much of the public turned out to register a vote of no confidence in the President more than they turned out to vote specifically for Biden. I wouldn't say most of Biden's votes were this, but enough to swing the election in a few key States? I think that's plausible.
I'd say the republicans were beaten pretty badly. I think they are at their worst point in decades. They managed to get their largest turnout ever, and didn't even flip the house. States that were red for decades flipped blue. And if the two runoffs are losses, that is a devastating blow, losing all levels of the federal government. 50% is not 50% without the white house.
I don't think the memory of Trump will go away that quickly. This election mobilized a lot of young voters, and now that they've seen their vote got rid of him, they will be more motivated to vote again for more progressive agendas, or against more radical right wing ones.
I don't think the rural republicans (Which is really where trump got most of his boost, anyway), will come out the same for a Mitt Romney. They want the guy who isn't afraid to tell it "like it is", be anti-BLM, etc. That is a major rift in the republican party that will further impact who they put up as candidates - and more rejection from the suburbs and cities will come.
Nah mate, I don't think so. 2008 was worse by far, I think you're reaching a little too hard for that one. If the Democrats had expanded their lead in the House, taken 60 Senate seats and expanded their hold on Governor's mansions, then this would be close to 2008, but even in that case Obama's margin of victory over McCain in both the Electoral College and the popular vote was a fair bit higher.
Yeah, the Republicans had their best turnout ever, but so did the Democrats! This was a record-turnout election all around. Turnout was so high that just a little less enthusiasm on one side or a little more animosity or apathy towards another side was enough to flip it around.
The only election in which the Republican Party was "destroyed" was the contest for the White House, and they saw some net losses in the Senate but not by anywhere close to the margin anyone thought. They actually gained in the House. 2008 this was not, not even close. Turnout was a lot higher, but the outcome is very different.
Neither are the Democrats without a clear enemy. Many left-leaning people voted Biden as an anti-Trump vote.
Californians moving to Texas make it blue-er and themselves red-er. Who knows how this effects the electoral calculus into the future.
That depends on the Californian. I don’t think Larry Ellison or Elon Musk moving to Texas make Texas bluer. It might make them redder though. Californians on average may be bluer than Texans, but the migration is a randomized sample of Californians.
Not if people are just sitting in their home all day. They won't be influenced by their environment but will still vote the same. Dockerized voters.
There is no stopping Texas turning into a blue (Democrat) state. The demographic changes in the US guarantee that outcome under all scenarios, short of the Republican party rapidly becoming a split Hispanic party. It's the only sustainable path forward for that party, so we'll see if they adjust accordingly or increasingly weaken. The future of the US is Hispanic / Latin American, so either the Republicans will adapt or they'll lose the popular vote by ever greater margins.