> I just don't think an opinion poll on a tech board is going to yield an accurate prediction of what to expect.

Part of your answer, which I'm paraphrasing to "I don't know, talk to the experts", is already a good answer. But I was hoping that there was an expert lurking around that might be able to explain the risks or link to some evidence.

You asked what "people on HN" think which is not exactly the top way to fish out experts.

If an expert read that, they would likely respond, citing why they are an expert. So I think it’s as good a way as any on hn.

If you hold a strawpoll of everyone around, then you may get an expert. But you will also primarily get non-experts, which is the problem and what headmelted is pointing out. If expert opinions are desired, why not ask for that? The non-expert opinions are already abundant, vocal, and ready to spread misinformation. shusson was not soliciting only expert opinions or even primarily expert opinions, whether that was intentional or not.

> I just don't think an opinion poll on a tech board is going to yield an accurate prediction of what to expect.

I'm pretty sure they were hoping to be answered by someone heavily schooled in mRNA vaccines and/or a practitioner involved in the trials for this particular vaccine. On this particular "tech board", there's a reasonable chance of getting a response from those kinds of experts.