Re:The Covid Science Wars
by thebruce87m on Monday November 30, 2020 @04:57PM
(#25259561)
I don’t know of any country on that list that hasn’t been mitigating infections in some way after the initial surge, so it’s no surprise the spike came down.
You would also expect to get no (average) excess mortality for the year if you just killed off the frail earlier than normal. This is not the case, excess mortality just returned to normal levels. You would need either a spike in the other direction or a step change down to fit with your theory.
You can track the yearly excess mortality data here for a few countries.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/07/15/tracking...
The huge spike happens and people adjust. They take less risks. Government mandates step in, businesses make decisions to close.
This isn't going to correlate to one thing. The seasonal impact is real, but that doesn't mean lockdowns don't work.
These charts tell exactly the story I'm telling. The peaks and troughs appear at the same time for countries with strict lockdowns as for those with less strict / non-existent lockdowns.