The odds on starting a business are pretty bad. You kind of have to ignore them, or else have some reason you think they don’t apply to you.

You shouldn't ignore them. If the odds are bad and you only do it for the money then don't start a business, you'll just make yourself unhappy. Start a business because that is what you want to do, then the odds doesn't really matter because you aren't doing it for the money. Or because you have a good reason believing that your case is special.

But absolutely don't believe your chances are great for no reason as the self-esteem enthusiasts would tell you. I see countless people wasting their life away chasing ideas just because their self esteem is way too high. Don't do that.