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Re:US Navy destroyer shoots down an ICBM in milestone test by throwaway894345 on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @03:19PM (#25141915)
I guess I'm arguing that there is a dynamic you're not considering with respect to whether or not to initiate a nuclear strike. I agree with you that an aggressor is more likely to initiate a strike if they believe they have a very high chance of a successful strike (where "success" is defined as destroying the target) and a very low chance of retaliation. However, the scenario we're debating is one in which Russia has its own interceptors so the risk of a successful first strike (US striking Russia) is about the same as the likelihood Russia succeeds in retaliating.

If both nations have lots and lots of interceptors relative to the ICMB cap (assuming for the moment that both countries adhere to the ICMB cap), then the odds of any country initiating a successful strike (first or second) becomes relatively and equally low. At that point, it's more effective to pursue conventional (i.e. non-nuclear) warfare, and even if a country does initiate a desperate nuclear strike, it's less concerning because the odds of a catastrophic loss of life are significantly reduced.

Would you argue that we would be better off if we fought conventional wars without body armor of any kind? Or would you argue that this is somehow different than the interceptor question? If so, how is it different (degree vs kind and why)?

(By the way, I don't see a US president--barring perhaps the current one who doesn't seem concerned with his own best interest much less that of his country--accepting a 75% chance of the destruction of US cities in order to stop a Russian advance)

Re:US Navy destroyer shoots down an ICBM in milestone test by ethbr0 on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @07:52PM (#25144896)
Good points, although the decision does bring in the anti-ABM research progression as well.

In that, if I am facing an adversary with sufficient ABM capability, I am inventivized to try technologies that moot that advantage. E.g. nuclear kamikaze UUVs/smart torpedos, stealth cruise missiles, short range/quick reaction strikes etc.

I think non-parity relationships are somewhat alien to us today, whereas the 50s and 60s were full of "someone could nuke someone else with impunity" periods.

And I guess I look at it as: MAD is preferable to a Pandora's Box future where sides are continually researching, developing, and deploying new weapons and reevaluating their relative advantage. Advantage in an arms race being especially troubling because it's use-it-or-lose-it -- e.g. the internal calls for the US to use nukes against China before they developed their own during the Korean War.

> Would you argue that we would be better off if we fought conventional wars without body armor of any kind?

It's absolutely a related question.

To some degree, yes. Or a corollary in whether it's just to fight wars in which one side uses drones/UVs and the other side uses people.

Modern wars end when one side's will to continue it ceases. And, for better or worse, casualties have driven that. What happens when one side doesn't take casualties (e.g. Yemen)?