Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls
by noxvilleza on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @08:25PM
(#25132114)
In addition to just using Brier scores (or alternatives) to evaluate their performance, I'm also interested in seeing how 538's underlying Monte Carlo models shift based on x% of error/uncertainty? (for example instead of evaluating a polling advantage as a single value K within a single simulation rather consider it a normally distributed variable).
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