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A comment on Prediction Markets Beat Polls. Parent comment

Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by benkuhn on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @07:58PM (#25131960)
Oh, great! And the prediction market did not beat polls (it tied with them on swing states and beat them on safe states, as I speculated).

I guess between this and the other commenter who made money betting 538's model on predictit, I consider this pretty thoroughly debunked.

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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by nwienert on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @08:27PM (#25132127)
You can’t do the analysis on PredictIt, they limit market size heavily.
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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by thebean11 on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @08:42PM (#25132219)
Do you know of any similar sites that don't limit bet size?

I saw some sports betting sites were offering odds, but not really a true market like predictit I think

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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by anonymoushn on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @08:48PM (#25132255)
Betfair seems to offer most of the same contracts as PredictIt as two-sided markets with lower fees and no cap on bet size or number of participants.
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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by Morizero on Tuesday November 17, 2020 @09:13PM (#25132404)
They are geolocked for some features, however
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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by anonymoushn on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @02:42AM (#25134133)
PredictIt also appears to have this issue. I must proxy my traffic through my US VPS to use it.
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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by dylkil on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @04:43AM (#25134901)
augur
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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by wodenokoto on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @05:10AM (#25135071)
I still kinda feel like the market beat the polls. Kinda.

In order to interpret the polls, you need top statisticians with lots of domain knowledge. In order to interpret the betting market, you simply read the odds and are done.

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Re:Prediction Markets Beat Polls by anonymoushn on Wednesday November 18, 2020 @06:31AM (#25135623)
If you went to the market and you bet that the polls would be correct, you made money.

The particular market available to US residents has separate issues about "reading the odds" where events that strictly contain other events are often priced multiple pennies cheaper, the total number of expected presidents is often ~1.1, events with probability at least 0.9 are almost always underpriced, often by a nickel or more, etc.

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