> Your choice is between 3% and 0.15% - not 95% and 97%.

I would put it differently: if we become covid carriers, we become spreaders. Those 3% are, thus, applied to a large population comprised of everyone we interact ina daily basis.

Thus even if at most the likelihood that we die of covid is only 3% tops, the likelihood that at least one person that catches covid from us does is proportional to the number of people we infect.

With a 3% fatality rate, the likelihood that at least one person we infect will die can reach 80% if we spread it to over 50 people.

If we infect someone over 60, the likelihood that they will die from covid grows from that 3% to about 20%.

So unless you are infected while living in a bubble, the real risk is far higher.

I live in a US state with essentially no lock down measures in place. Companies around me are going out of business by the dozen. These companies are not going out of business due to any government mandate they are going out of business because of economic uncertainty and people not spending as they dont want to go to places and potentially get sick. I used to spend ~$500 a month on eating out, I spend almost zero now as I dont want to take the risk. This has nothing to do with government choices and fully to do with mine. Now multiply this by tens of thousands of other people making the same choice and you will understand why an effective widely used vaccine is important for an economic recovery. Until the virus is under control I and many others will severely curtail our spending and there will be only a limited economic recovery.

In addition I dont go out as I have elderly relatives who I dont want to sicken, they dont expect it, its my choice. So blaming others for being selfish is really missing the point and is an illustration of not really understanding the current economic situation.

Your point is perfectly true, but there is also one more thing to consider. It is possible for the health care system to get overworked like they did in NYC and North Italy. There are signs it could happens in other places in the US now like Wisconsin.

At that point everything else suddenly becomes critical, because there is no ICU left.

Also, at least in CA, doctors/hospitals/dentists etc are only doing what is critical right now to avoid the whole hospital going into lockdown. That has large consequences for health outcomes and for the economy of those practises.

To add some data to that: there is a correlation between disease spread and GDP reduction, and it's the one that consistent with your anecdote: The economic impact is greater where the disease is left unchecked :

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy, and then specificaly this scatterplot: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/q2-gdp-growth-vs-confirme...

(unfortunately, the graph doesn't include countries like china, vietnam, and many other asian countries, because that would make the trend even clearer.)

average of 17 pedestrians are killed by cars in the US every day (data from 2018). Over 1,000 people per day are dying from covid in the US. So your odds of dying crossing the road on any given day are actually far, far less than your odds of dying from covid...

I think it's easy to look at a mortality rate of half a percent, and think "no big deal" - but it really is. One in every 200 people dying would mean most of us have a close connection to a couple of victims.

And there's already more dead from covid-19 in the US than casualties during the Vietnam War. Granted, more elderly people than young, but it's still a bit difficult to accept that it's insignificant.

Add to this what could happen with an exponential surge, with icus being over-run - and a) you'd end up being more likely to die from other causes, like a traffic accident - and b) many of the current covid-19 survivors would end up as casualties.

https://time.com/5843349/coronavirus-death-toll-100000/

You sound like a child. No one is panicking, the problem is it's killing people and hospitalizing even more people to the point of overrunning hospitals.

Very very few hospitals have actually been overrun. Many were and still are empty (or flooding in with people who couldn't get treatment for other things during the lockdowns). The cases in NYC, Michigan and Kirkland (Seattle) were all due to orders that packed elderly care facilities with sick. Governors Whitmer and Cuomo made huge mistakes with their orders and neither is owing up to it.

The problem is that with the infection spreading exponentially you might have hospitals half empty one day and at 200% a week later.

Here in Czech Republic it looks like we managed to avoid running out of capacity during the ongoing second wave, but just. The measures taken included canceling any elective and non-life-threatening surgeries, drafting medical school students, many foreign doctors that came to help and moving covid patients in critical state from overloaded hospitals hospitals.

We even built two full field hospitals which we will thankfully not need as it looks like. BTW, building one of them took about a week - which you migh not have, once you hit exponential growth. Not to mention having spare medical personnel to run it.

How many elective procedures are happening across America? Hint: not many.

All that you say makes sense. But hey we live in an irrational world (my based opinion).

Good luck surviving among a bunch of simians, who think they have figured it all out.