This is how you don't get to herd immunity and how you crash the economy for years.

You can't expect someone to take a rushed vaccine because other people are panicking. Lockdowns are what crash the economy, not the virus.

Evidence?

(My own suspicion is that the lockdowns are better for the economy in the long run, but I’m definitely not an expert.)

Just compare the GDP hit taken by Japan and Korea, which had essentially no lockdowns, with that taken by the European countries that locked down. Places with extensive lockdowns had GDP fall by 5-10 percentage points more. Or compare US states with more lockdowns vs those with less or no lockdown: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/red-states-are-outpe....

Because a temporarily modestly increased death rate wouldn't cause the damage we are currently doing to ourselves.

Better? Explain

>Better? Explain

Not GP, but it seems to me that given the large consumer spending portion of GDP (~70% in the US) in developed countries, anything that will limit folks going out and spending money, like:

1. Retail sales;

2. Air/rail/bus travel;

3. Going to bars/restaurants;

4. Hospitality (hotels/cruises);

5. Theater/concerts;

6. Public transportation.

Is likely to have significant negative effect on the economy as a whole until the majority of the population is convinced that they won't become sick and/or put their vulnerable loved ones at risk.

As such, it seems to me that we won't be able to resuscitate the economy fully until we have some semblance of herd immunity.

Whether that herd immunity comes from a vaccine or millions of deaths and tens of millions of long-term effects, or from a broadly deployed vaccine will also have significant economic impact.

tl;dr: if many/most won't go to the mall, the pub or Mallorca, the economy will continue to flounder. We won't get past that until people feel safe around others.

Apparently some folks disagree with my assessment/reasoning.

It would be nice to know what, exactly, I seem to be missing. Both for my own edification as well as enhancing the discussion around this.

If you’re doing it right, lockdowns are coordinated and brief.

That just means they are less harmful, but still harmful.

Are you pretending like not locking down this winter for example would have no negative effects on the economy?

I'm not an anti-vaxxer, but I'm not eager to be a guinea pig for anything that's been rushed through every approval stage. Especially since those approval stages were created in response to very real issues with vaccines that hadn't been discovered in early development and testing

Not an anti-vaxxer either but I don’t want to be the first to try something that is basically rushed to fix COVID, which has a 99% survival rate.

Please put it through proper animal and human trials before subjecting the populous to it.

What do you think these results are from?

No the lockdowns and still panicking US Governors crashed the economy.

I’d rather wait for a full FDA test and clearance on the vaccine than rush to be a guinea pig.

This isn’t a movie, people aren’t dropping dead from COVID unless they have comorbidity that puts them at risk.

Does having a comorbidity mean they deserve it?

If the comorbidity is obesity, which in most cases results from lifestyle choices, it's hardly fair for them to ask others to make sacrifices to protect them from the consequences of their own lifestyle choices.

Either explain how your position differs from "fat people deserve to die" or start using clearer language.

It's not "fat people deserve to die", it's "people who made good life choices don't deserve to have their livelihoods destroyed to reduce the risk of fat people dying".

There's much more to it than just surviving right? There's more nuances than just survival rates, and there are other related complications at play here.

One of the huge challenges of the medical industry. Their metrics are binary but quality of life is incredibly difficult to measure.

That said - I am not advocating for not taking a vaccine - I am merely commenting that the medical industry has some deeply flawed analytics for tracking success.

Yes, absolutely. Currently in day 5 of "having trouble breathing". I'm going to paste my comments/experience from a different forum below:

I currently have coronavirus. I'm a young male in my 20s (don't want to divulge too much info), 6'1", 170 lbs, non-smoker, rarely drink, pretty healthy. Waiting on test results.

Started off about 2 weeks ago, rash on my chest, lots of night sweats and chills. Didn't think it was covid at first. given the weird symptoms. I did not feel too sick, in general. Slight fever, slight cough and sore throat. For most of the time, it felt mild. Still have the rash, night sweats, and sore throat at the moment.

However, 4 days ago I started having issues breathing. I felt out of breath multiple times throughout the day, and at times it was hard to even suck in air (like my diaphragm was calcified or something). I woke up a few times at night, trying to suck in air. Today was better but the difficulty breathing is still there. I realized today, that even though it's not as bad as the worst flu I've had, it involved a symptom (difficulty breathing in air) that I have never experienced. Not with strep, not with the flu. This is something to note for everyone, in my opinion.

I think it's both milder AND worse than people think it is - I'm a healthy young male who exercises and eats well, and yet I'm having trouble breathing. This is a symptom that has continued for multiple days, and while it hasn't gotten worse, it's not getting much better. The rash is still there, my throat's still sore. If you are part of the obese/overweight American population (35% of us, including my family), and are a chronic smoker/drinker, and have chronic conditions (diabetes, hypertension, mental health conditions), I think you should still be careful.

Unless you have a respirator, there isn't anything you can take to resolve "difficulty breathing". It's not like fever/sweats/nausea - where you can just take a Nyquil and it's all gone. Not to mention, we have antibiotics and antivirals to attack the flu/cold/strep infections as well. Covid's a bit different - difficulty breathing can only currently be helped by equipment that's located in hospitals. There isn't some magic pill that will get your diaphragm pumping up and down again. This is something to note, in my opinion.

I'm not sure how much longer my symptoms will continue. The initial symptoms started 2 weeks ago, but the breathing related ones only started recently. I hope it gets resolved soon - I may provide a comment as an update.

Please wash your hands, avoid touching your face/eyes with your hands, socially distance if you can, and wear a mask when in public. Having trouble breathing is no joke.

Explain

Covid can do a lot more than just kill you or leave you alone—it can cause all sorts of long-term side effects as well. The longer-term issues caused by covid are a higher priority than the potential issues posed by the vaccine. These issues are both more common and more severe than any known side effect of any vaccine in trial right now.

Well just by searching the terms "Long Term Covid effects" would yield you a lot of results.

But the ones talked about most are the long lasting Mental Fog, Depression, Muscle Pain, Long lasting Headaches, Heart and Respiratory issues.

And anecdotally, I know of a few folks in my Hockey league community of which I am involved in that have said that after having had COVID, that they have either felt in the ranges of nothing at all (super lucky), or have had extreme issues where they could not get back to any strenuous activity much less any activity involving more than walking. Most of these guys would be considered pretty fit, ranging from the ages of 16 to 50. In one case, they have had a constant headache for over a month which is just resolving now.