Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed by holiday gatherings

Re:Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed ... by timr on Friday November 13, 2020 @12:40PM (#25085009)

"It is more like 0.5%-1% (if not more), and the IFR once you hit 65+ is 1.5% and rises quickly."

The current best estimates of IFR for SARS-CoV2 are:

* 0-19 years: 0.00003 (0.003%)

* 20-49 years: 0.0002 (0.02%)

* 50-69 years: 0.005 (0.5%)

* 70+ years: 0.054. (5.4%)

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed ... by mmastrac on Friday November 13, 2020 @01:12PM (#25085456)

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

"Using these age-specific estimates, we estimate the overall IFR in a typical low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, to be 0.23% (0.14-0.42 95% prediction interval range). In contrast, in a typical high income country, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, we estimate the overall IFR to be 1.15% (0.78-1.79 95% prediction interval range)."

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Super-spreading wedding demonstrates Covid-19 risk posed ... by timr on Friday November 13, 2020 @01:52PM (#25085946)

There have been dozens of papers in this area, primarily differing (as does your link) in the assumed balance of ages in a society.

The CDC citation is aggregating these studies, and (essentially) picking the middle. Cherry picking a single study from the larger pool is not a rebuttal.

[ Parent | on HN ]