It’s not that simple either though. I’ve heard that many people are postponing operations and treatments for existing conditions because of lockdowns, or fear of getting COVID should they go in for treatment, thereby making their existing condition more fatal. Many in my own family have chosen to skip regular checkups during COVID. Strictly speaking, excess deaths here are not due directly to COVID, but due to our response to COVID. And maybe the trade off is worth it, but we can’t tell just by looking at the excess deaths under one type of response.

Comparing excess deaths between US and Sweden is maybe a bit more bulletproof. If — at the end of this — Sweden has fewer excess deaths than the US, then their response was in some measures more effective than ours. But there’s so much going on, we still won’t know for certain for quite a while.