Re:Disaster prepping is mainstream again
by dekhn on Wednesday November 11, 2020 @02:12PM
(#25061739)
... and what we've established is that not a lot of people die in big earthquakes, but there's a lot of economic impact. I think people overweight the consequences because earthquakes are big and exciting.
Re:Disaster prepping is mainstream again
by jonahx on Wednesday November 11, 2020 @04:41PM
(#25063365)
I suppose that's fair. But I think it's less the "big and exciting" part and more the "imagining myself trapped and dying of thirst" or some such that motivates the "consequences" part of the equation.
Yes.
The relevant number is not p, the likelihood of the event.
It is something like:
EV = p * consequences
If the consequences are high enough (eg, death), then it is still rational to prepare for low probability events. Especially when the prep cost is low.