The problem is that "late 2021" is a date you just made up. The people deeply involved in vaccine development are talking about Spring and Summer of 2021 for a return to normalcy, with widespread vaccinations starting before the end of Winter. This is from people are Oxford, Moderna, various governmental health agencies, including our own reliably conservative Fauci. Where do you get "late 2021" from?

>The people deeply involved in vaccine development are talking about Spring and Summer of 2021 for a return to normalcy

Any update on this figure? I'm seeing a lotta different stances

I made a somewhat educated guess. I'm not as educated as the people you name, but they too are just guessing. I'm trying to be reasonable though, and I don't have any reason to spread an optimistic hope.

If this is the only vaccine that passes trails - well they can't make it fast enough for a late 2021 opener. If some of the others also pass trails then early 2021 is a possibility (so long as you don't have some reason to prefer a specific vaccine as opposed to whatever you can get first)

I'm fine not getting a dose for months because I'm not in a high-risk group, and not working with high-risk individuals.

If we can vaccinate hospital workers and high-risk individuals, that will already make fatalities go down very quickly. That will help us get out of confinement faster.