Yeah I just looked at the distribution on close of Nov 2. The modal bucket was 246+, and the p50 if you convert to a quantitative variable was about 238, which is almost right in line with 538. Ultimately I think the huge difference with betting markets v. 538 for this market was they had higher variance and fatter tails, which could possibly point to a win for 538, EVEN if 538 were legitimately biased!

https://i.imgur.com/O7UegtQ.jpg

We'll simply never know without 1000 realizations of this election but next cycle I'd like Nate Silver to bet money whenever he finds mispriced events/odds and show how much money he makes to strengthen the case that his model is an improvement.