> Commercial fleets require maintenance and spare parts.

Yep. But this is mitigated a bit by the fact that EVs tend to require massively less maintenance and spare parts.

From what I've seen, Tesla does not do service really well and that's something they will have to get down if they are going to get into commercial vehicles. Even if Tesla trucks require vastly less ongoing service, they need to have that service be good. I've heard of Tesla owners having to wait several weeks for parts, for a commercial vehicle that's a no-go.

Running gear wear on trucks is where the costs are, and an engine rebuild every 200K-750 K km depending on how they are used (local routes vs long haul).

EVs should have a substantial advantage over trucks in the brake wear department, battery overhaul costs will match or possibly be lower than the engine overhaul costs.

Put it all together and for short haul trips EVs should have an advantage and for the longer haul they are as yet impractical. Keep in mind that a 1000 liter fuel reserve is a substantial amount of energy for relatively little weight disadvantage on a vehicle that already weighs 8 tons, the equivalent in batteries weighs many times more. Some of this weight disadvantage will be compensated by regenerative braking, with a diesel vehicle that energy is converted to waste heat every time the vehicle comes to a stop.

So, overall, I think short haul EV trucks will have the edge soon, long haul it likely will be diesel for quite a while to come.

they working on that heavily right now, opening hundreds of new service centers, build a presence in europe, china, east cost+ central. They doing everything right in terms of that, and they moving fast. Tesla semi will be a major hit , but the form factor is not limited to that, volvo will get their share. To be a real #1 manufacture tesla need at least 5-6 different size models, including 2 vans , small cheap car, bigger suv for family mid size truck, a bus.