Production starts sometime in 2021 with scale production probably in 2022.
Production of Semi was supposed to start this year. According to Musk it was delayed because Tesla is still starved for batteries (a single semi consumes the same amount of cells as 10-20 Model 3 cars)
Cell bottleneck will be solved with the new battery production system recently demonstrated at battery day.
Tesla hints many things. They need to figure out their supply chain. Commercial fleets require maintenance and spare parts.
Yep. But this is mitigated a bit by the fact that EVs tend to require massively less maintenance and spare parts.
From what I've seen, Tesla does not do service really well and that's something they will have to get down if they are going to get into commercial vehicles. Even if Tesla trucks require vastly less ongoing service, they need to have that service be good. I've heard of Tesla owners having to wait several weeks for parts, for a commercial vehicle that's a no-go.
EVs should have a substantial advantage over trucks in the brake wear department, battery overhaul costs will match or possibly be lower than the engine overhaul costs.
Put it all together and for short haul trips EVs should have an advantage and for the longer haul they are as yet impractical. Keep in mind that a 1000 liter fuel reserve is a substantial amount of energy for relatively little weight disadvantage on a vehicle that already weighs 8 tons, the equivalent in batteries weighs many times more. Some of this weight disadvantage will be compensated by regenerative braking, with a diesel vehicle that energy is converted to waste heat every time the vehicle comes to a stop.
So, overall, I think short haul EV trucks will have the edge soon, long haul it likely will be diesel for quite a while to come.
Tesla has also hinted at a passenger van eventually... but again no date, no details.