Re:Can anyone get access to the same live vote data the netw...
by matt_s on Wednesday November 04, 2020 @06:40PM
(#24994221)
For funsies, I put the numbers from NY Times into Excel to play with on the final 7 states that are undecided/close (AZ, GA, MI, PA, NV, NC, WI).
The unknowns really are the amount of leftover ballots and what goes to each presidential candidate. A changeable variable on my sheet is the percentage of remaining that goes to each candidate.
There are a few headlines that indicate Dems get more in absentee ballots but no actual data so 50/50 seems fair but is inaccurate. Especially if the missing ballots are in counties that are historically one way or another. Six of the seven remaining states are less than 100k ballot difference when you split the remaining ballots 50/50.
You don't need a real time data feed to make projections. The NY Times site indicates the caveats with each state - like they haven't counted absentee, etc. so you can tinker with the numbers.
The unknowns really are the amount of leftover ballots and what goes to each presidential candidate. A changeable variable on my sheet is the percentage of remaining that goes to each candidate.
There are a few headlines that indicate Dems get more in absentee ballots but no actual data so 50/50 seems fair but is inaccurate. Especially if the missing ballots are in counties that are historically one way or another. Six of the seven remaining states are less than 100k ballot difference when you split the remaining ballots 50/50.
You don't need a real time data feed to make projections. The NY Times site indicates the caveats with each state - like they haven't counted absentee, etc. so you can tinker with the numbers.