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A comment on Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast. Parent comment

Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by shajznnckfke on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:24PM (#24887997)
If you have a die that rolls a one 1/6 of the time, do you consider the die wrong?
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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by ceilingcorner on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:26PM (#24888011)
No, but I don't consider it useful toward predicting the outcome, which is of course what this is all about.
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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by thomasmeeks on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:53PM (#24888300)
Say more about "but I don't consider it useful toward predicting the outcome"

How else would one predict the outcome of a die roll, specifically?

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Re:Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Five... by shajznnckfke on Sunday October 25, 2020 @01:43PM (#24888215)
If there was sufficient data to assign a 0% or 100% probability to an event, that’s what a forecaster should do. If there isn’t sufficient data, then anyone who claims there is a sure thing is a charlatan.
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