That's not how gambling works. You don't "bet the farm" on a single 87% chance event to win 1.5 farms.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by gifnamething on Friday October 23, 2020 @05:46PM
(#24874596)
That is how betting works when you hedge.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @12:28AM
(#24876942)
How are you planning to hedge this?
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by gifnamething on Saturday October 24, 2020 @03:45PM
(#24881479)
Uh, bet on the other guy
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @05:40PM
(#24882146)
At most (all?) venues, betting on both guys is worse than not betting on either guy. So this sounds like a bad plan.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @12:32AM
(#24876953)
The Kelly criterion says you bet 61% of the farm in this situation.
> If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
I mean, maybe they are; how would you know? (Though it would seem vaguely improper; not sure about the journalistic ethics take on this but it's at the very least not a great look.) Presumably the money a few 538 employees could bet wouldn't shift the betting markets very much.
This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.