> You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets.
This is what's frustrating about sites like 538. They have Biden as an 87% chance to win. A betting site I frequent has Biden's winning odds as -180 (1.556 for Europeans). If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
That's not how gambling works. You don't "bet the farm" on a single 87% chance event to win 1.5 farms.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by gifnamething on Friday October 23, 2020 @05:46PM
(#24874596)
That is how betting works when you hedge.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @12:28AM
(#24876942)
How are you planning to hedge this?
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by gifnamething on Saturday October 24, 2020 @03:45PM
(#24881479)
Uh, bet on the other guy
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @05:40PM
(#24882146)
At most (all?) venues, betting on both guys is worse than not betting on either guy. So this sounds like a bad plan.
Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by anonymoushn on Saturday October 24, 2020 @12:32AM
(#24876953)
The Kelly criterion says you bet 61% of the farm in this situation.
> If they really believe the accuracy of their models, they should literally be betting the farm on a Biden win.
I mean, maybe they are; how would you know? (Though it would seem vaguely improper; not sure about the journalistic ethics take on this but it's at the very least not a great look.) Presumably the money a few 538 employees could bet wouldn't shift the betting markets very much.
If you talked to people you would understand that what they optimize for is not really related to the caricatures of them, its not the opposite of what "your side" cares about just completely different.
When it is obvious that all the news comes from New York City and Los Angeles, and the world resyndicates that, while a large swath of America that actually matters cares about different things, it is easy to tell why the models fail.
You would have bet the farm on the undervalued bet on the prediction markets.