Re:Electoral College Decision Tree
by mrtksn on Friday October 23, 2020 @12:12PM
(#24871018)
Doesn't it mean that having even %16 chance means that it is actually possible?
Maybe it's simply not a good idea to analyse this in terms of chances of winning because we will witness just 1 event but the probability says that in 400 years we will have 16 Trump presidencies.
It's very counterintuitive, I don't know how to think of it. It's like saying that %99 of StartUps fail but that stat is meaningless to the individual startups(meaningful to govt & investors that will have to deal with 100s or more startups).
From subjects perspective, their own startup have %100 chance of success and Trump has %100 chance of winning.
Maybe these "chance of winning" statistics should be compiled by examining the roadblocks to the success.
Maybe it's simply not a good idea to analyse this in terms of chances of winning because we will witness just 1 event but the probability says that in 400 years we will have 16 Trump presidencies.
It's very counterintuitive, I don't know how to think of it. It's like saying that %99 of StartUps fail but that stat is meaningless to the individual startups(meaningful to govt & investors that will have to deal with 100s or more startups).
From subjects perspective, their own startup have %100 chance of success and Trump has %100 chance of winning.
Maybe these "chance of winning" statistics should be compiled by examining the roadblocks to the success.