Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seroprevalence data [pdf]

Re:Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seropre... by petertodd on Saturday October 17, 2020 @04:16PM (#24812917)

The US has a mortality rate from car accidents per capita of 0.01%/year(1). The CDC's best guess infection fatality rate estimate(2) for the 20-49 age group is 0.02%/infection.

With a conservative herd immunity threshold of 50%, that'd put an uncontrolled COVID-19 pandemic and random car accidents about equal for that age group. For the 50-69 age group, the CDC estimates a 0.5% IFR, so COVID-19 would be 25x higher mortality than random car crashes.

1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r... 2) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

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Re:Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seropre... by morsch on Saturday October 17, 2020 @04:34PM (#24813085)

a) IFR is in fact higher according to that research, and b) US roads are far more dangerous than UK roads.

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Re:Infection fatality rate of Covid-19 inferred from seropre... by petertodd on Saturday October 17, 2020 @05:00PM (#24813331)

> IFR is in fact higher according to that research,

By "that research" you mean https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v... right?

Because it actually gives a slightly lower IFR than the CDC at age 55 (0.4% vs 0.5%), not higher. So I'm not sure what you mean.

> US roads are far more dangerous than UK roads.

Yes, according to the WHO(1) the US has a 3.6x higher mortality rate from car accidents than the UK, which gets us to 90x higher for the age group I quoted.

Anyway, I didn't want to contradict that figure. Just give perspective.

1)https://www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_s...

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