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Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by rajup on Monday October 12, 2020 @03:00PM (#24758085)
Curious, explain to me why I should listen to a random person on the Internet over a university research group? "betrayed extreme ignorance of binomial confidence intervals and modeling", lots of words but zero evidence supporting your assertions. If you have any concrete evidence to contradict their findings rather than just a blanket "extreme ignorance of binomial confidence intervals", that would be far more useful.
Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by cozzyd on Monday October 12, 2020 @03:45PM (#24758636)
No reason you should listen to me in particular (no doubt I have made egregious statistical errors myself in my research), but a good place to start might be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_proportion_confidence... or, as others have posted, it's worth listening to Andrew Gelman (unlike me, a statistics expert) about this! https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...

Essentially the problem with the study is that the bounds on the false positive rate of the test used was such that the data are completely consistent with all of the positives being false positives.

Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by rajup on Monday October 12, 2020 @05:50PM (#24759842)
Thanks!
Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by nickforr on Monday October 12, 2020 @03:23PM (#24758370)
Worth looking through here and related links: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...
Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by epistasis on Monday October 12, 2020 @03:12PM (#24758255)
Don't trust one research group, trust the rest of the scientific body rising up to demolish them for obviously bad work:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-stu...

I think calling it "extreme ignorance of binomial confidence intervals" is incorrect and far too charitable. The authors were intentionally deceitful. Co-authors of the preprint requested that they be taken off the pre-print because they had warned that the statistics were bad. Prior the the prevalence study, they had cherry picked weird data sets and published an editorial. They are clearly trying to bend the data to their preconceived notions, in a really public way.

To see journalists pick up their work again, just because they are at a big name institution, is a huge betrayal of the public trust.

Re:Harvard, Oxford, Stanford doctors among leaders of global... by dvt on Monday October 12, 2020 @03:26PM (#24758398)
> scientific body rising up to demolish them for obviously bad work

Come on man, let's be fair: a couple of tweets and a few snarky emails hardly consist of the "scientific body demolishing them." I'm not sure if I agree with Bhattacharya's study, but it's hardly been universally repudiated. This just low-effort politicizing by Ars Technica (which has a spotty record to begin with).

Even this critical blog post[1] has all kinds of colorful discussion (mostly by academics) showing that things are simply not as cut-and-dry as we'd like them to be.

[1] https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaw...