Just an example calculation: If you can save $1000/month on rent and another say $150/month on other living expenses. that's $13800 annually. That's about $138000 annually net salary right now ($124200 after the cut) to break even, or about $180K-$210K pre taxes and pre cut, living in San Fran. Now, if you move to an area with lower taxes that break even point will only go up.
Insurance dropped from $120/mo to $50/mo.
Furthermore, it is not only housing cost that is lower outside major cities. Your hairdresser also has higher rent in a major city, as do her suppliers. There's more traffic so goods take longer to deliver. This is besides the fact that other states/places can and often do have lower taxes on goods than major cities. So your iPhone might actually be cheaper as well.
Everything is more expensive in a major city because everyone has more expenses and passes those on.
NYC, where I live, has an 8.875% combined sales tax. And a high income tax.
Texas, meanwhile, has a maximum combined rate of 8.25% and no income taxes. High property taxes.
Moving to Texas would cut the sales tax I pay.
Meanwhile, all these affluent people have to move somewhere, the properties in these places aren't going to stay cheap forever. So you can get a cheaper mortgage in those places to pay off a property that will rise in value.
Of course, that's all speculation. Prices in the "good places" are already high anyway, if you really want to strike a bargain you have to buy into the places that are still up-and-coming.
You have to look at it in terms of opportunity cost. What else could you have bought for that money? If prices rise in SF only because of inflation, prices rise even faster in those places where there's a real increase in demand.
I didn't notice this when I went there last year, is it a post-covid thing? What happened?
Or, as California is a non-recourse state, leaving the bank holding the bag, paying only taxes on the unpaid debt.
> Meanwhile, all these affluent people have to move somewhere
Well, they actually don't have to move, and if they do it may not be to where you predict.
Leaving the Bay Area will lower your housing costs, but everything else you buy will take up a larger percentage of your income than it did before. Plus you'll be making less money -- in some cases, a lot less. Run the numbers and you might find out that even after paying for a Bay Area mortgage you would have more money in retirement in California than you would in a cheaper place.
Don't move for cost savings. The economic benefits are not as strong as they appear to be. Only move somewhere if it's actually where you want to live.