Maybe, or maybe not, who knows? That’s the problem, your betting everything on your best guess what the optimum approach might be long before you have any idea what the odds are.

The problem is (1) the earlier you spend big the greater the chance you’ll pick wrong because you have less information to base a decision on and (2) Spending big doesn’t actually improve the odds that the approach you pick will end up being the right one. It just means you find out sooner.