News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by pessimizer on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @10:54AM (#24481871)
> There's no point forcing someone into isolation over an inaccurate test that could have flagged a cold virus as Covid-19.

Yes there is.

I'm fine with the Bill Gates bashing, but this is like saying there's no reason to stop having unprotected sex after you've tested positive for HIV using a test with a 20% false positive rate. Stop doing things that would potentially spread the disease, then take a better test.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by henriquez on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @10:59AM (#24481929)
Is the goal of civilization that all people should be 100% protected against 100% of threats 100% of the time? I have a statistically higher chance of dying in a car accident in the 2.5 hour drive to visit my parents than I do of dying from Covid-19. The restrictions we're placing people under over this virus are disproportionate to the harm it's doing to our civilization.

If the goal is really to protect people, then we shouldn't stop at isolation. We should ban all of the things that could potentially harm people: alcohol, tobacco, fast food, sex (protected or otherwise - there is too much risk), and driving. We should remove all peoples' liberties to protect them from all threats.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by rgbrenner on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @11:37AM (#24482460)
I have a statistically higher chance of dying in a car accident in the 2.5 hour drive to visit my parents than I do of dying from Covid-19.

You didn't do one bit of math before writing that.

In 2.5 hours, about 10 people will die in car accidents in the US. (100 per day)

Versus about 100 people from Covid (1000 per day).

Only 8% of the US population does NOT have access to a car. Exclude the elderly and children.. but that's still not enough of a difference to explain an order of magnitude more deaths.

You draw a lot of conclusions from rhetoric instead of facts. That's exactly what got us into this mess.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by nradov on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @12:27PM (#24483152)
It's difficult to have a sensible, objective discussion about relative risks because the numbers vary tremendously for individuals. Here are the latest estimates of infection fatality rate by age.

0-19 years: 0.00003 20-49 years: 0.0002 50-69 years: 0.005 70+ years: 0.054

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

Of those that died in all age groups, the majority had at least one serious pre-existing condition prior to infection. In general most healthy young people are at higher risk from vehicle accidents than COVID-19, but the risk calculus changes significantly for those who are older or in poor health.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by henriquez on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @11:45AM (#24482570)
Well except that recorded Covid-19 deaths are statistically inseparable from deaths due to comorbidities and the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.” So, yes, as a perfectly healthy mid-30s adult I have a higher chance of dying in a car accident.

If anything we’ve successfully argued why people with comorbid risk factors (old age, diabetes, asthma, obesity, etc.) should remain isolated, but even that is looking sketchy as the death rate continues to plummet.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by WalterGR on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @12:01PM (#24482802)
the overwhelming majority of recorded deaths were over 55 years old and had two or more comorbidities. The number of recorded Covid-19 deaths with zero comorbidities is some infinitesimal fraction (< 10%) of the overall “death count.”

A comorbidity is something that contributed to death, not necessarily a pre-existing condition.

Please take another look at the CDC report you’re extrapolating your claim from. You’ll see comorbidities such as

* Influenza and pneumonia

* Adult respiratory distress syndrome

* Respiratory failure

* Respiratory arrest

* Cardiac arrest

As it stands you’re essentially saying that if you have no pre-existing conditions, then being shot is fairly risk free. After all, people who die from gunshot wounds have comorbidities like blood loss, cardiac arrest, brain damage, laceration of internal organs, and sepsis.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by nl on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @11:31AM (#24482384)
It's 2 weeks (at most) isolation when you have a greater than 80% chance of being infected and spreading it to hundreds of people.

That seems a reasonable thing to do, because unlike all your other hyperbolic examples it is potentially harmful to large numbers of other people.

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by nradov on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @12:22PM (#24483079)
The best estimate of R0 is 2.5, not hundreds.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...

Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by nl on Tuesday September 15, 2020 @10:27PM (#24488955)
Yes, and an R0 of 2.5 is only 5 chained infections from 100 (ok, 97). If there is no isolation that's inevitable.
Re:Bill Gates slams 'shocking' U.S. response to Covid-19 pan... by nradov on Wednesday September 16, 2020 @11:02AM (#24493338)
That's a real stretch. If you're going to count chained infections then why stop at 5? You might as well go to infinity and claim that everyone in the world will be infected. Ridiculous.