source: Current and previous gfs were Belarrusian and we had these discussions a lot (both before and after this whole thing)
edit: And both parents of both women voted for lukashenko btw, as well as some of their friends (not saying he won or anything, but it isn't also like 100% are opposed to him)
That said, I don't think it really matters what how the average Belarusian sees it. Russia (specifically Putin, and probably many of his generation) sees a democratic revolution as 1989 stuff, and as a weakening of their "buffer."
Nothing is ever 100% but I think it's likely that most want Lukashenko gone. We can't know for sure without a free election. That's the point.
As I said, I do think mistakes were made in the past. Ukraine's simultaneous moves towards NATO and the EU were a bad idea, for world peace. That did not justify Russian intervention though, and it does not justify it now. It may even be for the best if the US stays at arms length. The EU, imo, should not. This concerns our interests and security just as much as it concerns Russia's.
And I agree that EU should put more pressure on the whole subject. I see the eastern countries like Lithuania, Poland and Latvia trying to make waves/raise concerns, but central and western Europe not so much (ask a Portuguese where Belarus is, and he won't know) and are more invested in the BLM issues than what is happening at the EU borders (in Portugal, most don't event know what is going on there when I talk with them.
I wish all the best to the belarussian people, and they have shown to the world their desire but also their alues by their way of correctly and peacefully way to protest and demand change. I hope it is not for nothing.
Very frustrating. I believe in solidarity, and I sympathize with US causes as well. But, Belarus is in need of our solidarity. I'm not sure americans even noticed it.
As a European, I feel that we are too disconnected from this affair. Just as with the Ukrainian civil war and Crimean annexation, a big part of this conflict is a conservative, repressive, Russia/Putin sponsored regime at odds with a population that identifies more with European/EU values... especially younger people.
Russia see the dignity, prosperity and freedom of several nations as trivial relative to their "vital concern" of having a buffer between them and "The West."
I'm not saying that we can or should escalate recklessly vis-a-vis Russia. I am saying that they are our neighbors too, not just Russia's. We have our interests too, and more importantly our solidarity. The Lukashenko regime is anachronistic, brutal and failed.
This is not a foreign affair.
I understand and even sympathize with Putin's concerns on encroachment. He lays them out clearly enough. I will also admit that mistakes have been made, and the the US played its hand too aggressively in the 1990s. I also think that the EU (and NATO, if the US is willing) should negotiate a peace treaty that addresses these. I also genuinely believe this is possible.
For that to happen though, we need to take a much firmer stance. We need to be as interested in our neighbors as Russia is. The whole premise of the EU is peace and sovereignty. Those values need to be represented here.
Ukraine was abused because of their desire to join the EU, and we treated it as above our paygrade. Now, Russia is openly propping up Lukashenko. Next year it will be Lithuania, Estonia. Putin might decide to intervene on behalf of Victor Orban. We're in this one way or another.