> The latest numbers i have seen is that 80% of the market shares is controlled by institutional investors.
Institutional investor != passive investment.
As long as trades are happening, there is some sort pricing mechanism.
Declining expectations for NGDP growth/uncertainty lead to funds searching for yield in the credit markets, leading to declining yields.
Bond yields declined prior to Fed intervention [0]
Basically we moved back to a renting society.
They would better reduce return than touch the principal.
This is a rent market. Not an investment one.
Rent market are more comparable to land value than to investment markets. Thibk of the use of corn as a relatively bad economic choice for profit but great for rent stability as an example.
That is what something like retirement and endowment need.
Sure but my concern is that pricing now looks less about fundamentals and more about the meta game of what other traders are gambling at the moment. What do you think about the price discovery mechanism for Bitcoin for example?
Bitcoin is operating under a great deal of uncertainty about its future prospects/the prospects of blockchain.
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/richard-rorty-and-the-effic...
This idea would have more uncertainty for the investors, so they'd want a higher return than for a fixed bond. Taxpayers would be less likely to vote for the measure because it would have to raise their taxes even more than a standard bond.
(that being said, bond measures often take the form of "a 0.2% property/sales tax is to be levied for the next 20 years to pay off the bond", which is actually pretty close to what is being proposed by the GP. The difference is who is left holding the bag if tax revenues don't meet projections)
The latest numbers i have seen is that 80% of the market shares is controlled by institutional investors.
That is a looooot of the market tied to a set of investors that cannot bet on anything else than up due to their own long term problems. At this point, the market is better viewed as a gigantic retirement fund/saving account than as a way to decide on price.
Once you look at the market that way, a lot more of the behaviours make sense.