Re:Secret gyms and the economics of prohibition
by nradov on Thursday August 20, 2020 @09:09AM
(#24222811)
It seems that not everyone in Germany is wearing masks and social distancing.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-protests-coronavirus/a-5445665...
Pandemic control measures can temporarily suppress R0, but as soon as those measures are lifted the contagion picks up again.
The average age of grandparents in the US is about 65. The actual infection fatality rate for that age group is 1.3%. That's bad, but nowhere near half the neighborhood.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v...
It's a collective action problem. If everyone keeps to mask mandate and social distancing for a month, there is no need to close gyms and schools after. Germany and Italy are fine now with maybe ten deaths a day.
If 20% of the population keeps ignoring the recommendations because they don't give a flying fuck about the society they live in, R0 will stay above 1 forever and half of your neighbourhood will see their grandparents die in the next year.