Re:Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial
by notahacker on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @02:42PM
(#24214362)
The closest thing we've got to a full scale implementation is the state pension system, and various related natural experiments like 'does raising the pension age make people of that age group more likely to continue working'. It's obviously also far from a perfect experiment due to people at the bottom of the pension age bracket being somewhat different from the median working age person, but there's a reason why UBI advocates won't derive any conclusions from it at all...
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Re:Germany begins 3-year universal-basic-income trial
by ghaff on Wednesday August 19, 2020 @03:28PM
(#24215070)
My mostly anecdotal observation is that many people with US military pensions for example do tend to time retirements around pensions. But I don't know the numbers. I would assume that there have been studies related to how many people actually retire after 20 years where, I believe, they get 50% of their pay. (And what they do when they retire.) I'm not aware of such studies but I would think there's some insight there.
The main flaw is that one of the concerns with UBI is that many people might never start working and by the time they realize that UBI isn't enough, it may be too late. OTOH, someone who has been in the military for 20 years may well decide to retire early but that's a different situation.