I was warned very early, end of January, and locked down my family about a week before required. I track someone who reviews the literature and news and give bi-weekly updates on the state of knowledge and politics surrounding the pandemic.

Originally he erred way on the side of caution, because we did not know enough. We learn more every week, and his current outlook is a lot like what you just wrote.

The big remaining problem is this is not going away anytime soon. There's more politics than science going on, and there have been institutional failures world-wide from top to bottom.