I can generally agree about random ICOs, but for what it's worth the Filecoin team is world-class distributed systems talent. I wouldn't say this about any other ICO.

(I don't own Filecoin tokens and have nothing to gain by the project being successful, I'm just a fan of that team.)

If you're investing in a business venture, the distributed systems talent doesn't matter nearly as much as their ability to build and maintain a successful business without it falling over. If they've got millions USD worth of cash in the bank, they can hire talented engineers, but if they don't have any idea how to run a business no algorithm is going to fix that.

I'm responding to:

> The chance of "filecoin" or whatever else existing 12 months into the future is astonishingly low.

I actually think the chance of Filecoin existing in a year is close to 1. It's not due to a prediction of a wildly successful corporate structure. It's mainly about the tech.

Seems roughly in like with most startups