In my opinion, when long-term demand for a traditional university education shows signs that it will significantly decline.
I just don't think we've seen it yet. (Nor have we seen severe short-term decline in demand. Enrollment is down less than I was expecting.) There are a variety of competitors such as edX, Coursera, etc., as well as university-affiliated "startups" such as SNHU's massive online program. For the most part they haven't caught on that much, and I don't think they will.
As tuition keeps rising, it will squeeze out smaller, less prestigious, and more expensive private schools that offer (in my opinion) questionable value for money. But I'd expect many of these students to choose state schools instead.
All this said, I don't have all that much insider knowledge, just strong opinions. :)
Cheers, again. I always forget that their might be other people from SC on this board. It's refreshing to be reminded.
I'm curious: under what conditions do you think the threat to Carolina (and other similar regional flagship schools) becomes "existential"?
E.g. classes go online for the Fall semester sometime in Spring, with little hope of reopening the campus for Spring.
Forever to thee.