It's definitely an existential threat to the system. The reason unis might survive are 1) government aid direct and indirect 2) Unis have otherwise heavily incumbent positions and the banks will provide money, maybe on ugly terms.
Most colleges are panicking right now, this is not the kind of situation they are in any way equipped to handle.
[1] https://www.newser.com/story/289974/2/colleges-face-existent...
I'm curious: under what conditions do you think the threat to Carolina (and other similar regional flagship schools) becomes "existential"?
E.g. classes go online for the Fall semester sometime in Spring, with little hope of reopening the campus for Spring.
Forever to thee.
In my opinion, when long-term demand for a traditional university education shows signs that it will significantly decline.
I just don't think we've seen it yet. (Nor have we seen severe short-term decline in demand. Enrollment is down less than I was expecting.) There are a variety of competitors such as edX, Coursera, etc., as well as university-affiliated "startups" such as SNHU's massive online program. For the most part they haven't caught on that much, and I don't think they will.
As tuition keeps rising, it will squeeze out smaller, less prestigious, and more expensive private schools that offer (in my opinion) questionable value for money. But I'd expect many of these students to choose state schools instead.
All this said, I don't have all that much insider knowledge, just strong opinions. :)
Cheers, again. I always forget that their might be other people from SC on this board. It's refreshing to be reminded.
I suspect that my employer, as well as similar universities, will be more-or-less okay.
To be sure, there will be pain. Faculty hiring, for example, will take a huge hit -- I feel bad for everyone finishing up grad school and postdocs now, and who was anticipating hitting the academic job market.
In addition, there might be layoffs of tenured faculty, and/or closure of programs like history which are deeply worth preserving but which don't generate the big bucks. You might see a lot of sports get cut -- think swimming, wrestling, golf, etc. -- not the sort which get broadcast on TV. This already happened at Stanford.
But my estimation is that we, and similar universities, do not face an existential threat. Hopefully I'm right.
The schools that are most screwed are small, non-prestigious liberal arts colleges -- most of which are not very well known. Indeed, there were already a number of such closures before the pandemic hit.