Even with Windows, which is their most successful consumer product, its success can arguably be attributed to the fact that Microsoft essentially has a 100% market dominance on computers sold under $1,000. Would that product be as successful if it faced competent competition? We really can't say for certain.
Office has historically seen consumer success (however I suspect the rise of G Suite has significantly curtailed that), but that's only because Office has been a necessity if you want to interact with business documents (which are typically .docx and MS Office files).
The common theme here is that, with the exception of Xbox, Microsoft's consumer products only seem to see success when consumers have no other options.
What consumer successes has Microsoft had recently other than Surface?
MS has what I call the 6 versions rule. v1 do not get, v2 interesting toy, v3 hey kinda usable, v4 get this thing it is cool, v5 they manage to mess it up badly, v6 just kinda put that back but not quite. They then toggle between v5 and v6.
Xbox was always consumer and is massive. A huge chunk of the Windows line was always about consumers. The office line straddled both. Hotmail was consumer first.