Bayes Theorem: A Framework for Critical Thinking

Re:Bayes Theorem: A Framework for Critical Thinking by roenxi on Wednesday August 05, 2020 @06:30AM (#24059169)

Ah, hey, didn't see you were also the submitter. I enjoyed your writing; it is interesting to run across systems thinkers.

And just to fill up the word count; if you haven't read up on the major statistical paradoxes it is possible you'll enjoy them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Statistical_paradoxes for your attention. If you are playing with stats for the framework then the other half of the fun is delving into the paradoxes; knowing them by heart is a great trick for interpreting evidence. Simpson's, Berkson's and the Elevator Paradox explain a lot of life.

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Re:Bayes Theorem: A Framework for Critical Thinking by neilkakkar on Wednesday August 05, 2020 @06:40AM (#24059216)

Ah, yes indeed! Thank you.

I really enjoyed this explanation of Simpson's Paradox: http://michaelnielsen.org/reinventing_explanation/

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Re:Bayes Theorem: A Framework for Critical Thinking by tmoertel on Wednesday August 05, 2020 @08:43AM (#24060167)

A better, more satisfying explanation for Simpson's Paradox comes from Pearl et al.'s work in modern causation theory, in which they point out that the paradox exists only because we fail to consider the causal structure that generated the apparently paradoxical data. If we take that structure into account and are clear about the causal question we are trying to answer, the paradox disappears. For a recent example involving COVID-19, check out this blog post:

http://causality.cs.ucla.edu/blog/index.php/2020/07/06/race-...

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Re:Bayes Theorem: A Framework for Critical Thinking by srean on Wednesday August 05, 2020 @01:43PM (#24063437)

Hi Tom I used to enjoy your blog a lot and your posts on G+ pray continue blogging.

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